Asia is the largest continent, measured by landmass and human population, blessed with diversities and differences, possibilities and problems and challenges and opportunities. The variety of people, land, race, climate, language, nations, creed etc., makes Asia all the more challenging. It has three important recognized political divisions: the Middle East, (West Asia), the Southeast Asia (South Asia) and the North Asia. We believe that next decade of Asia will surely carry on with the present economic growth and development, though most countries are still developing and under-developed. The steady progress made within last 2 or 3 decade has made Asia’s future an innovation, where all have an eye on. When we look at future of Asia we come across some challenging future issues especially in coming decade which concerns us though progress is made economically.
ECONOMICS, TRADE AND INVESTMENT
This is certain that Asia is going to be the centre of world commerce in the coming time as the future for Asia looks really bright with China and India leading the pack with a lot of expectations from people around the world. There is almost universal agreement that the centre of power is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans in what is rapidly becoming the ‘Asian Age’. In just ten years from now, over half the world’s population of almost 8 billion people will live in Asia. By 2020, if recent trends continue, three of the five largest economies in the world–China, India and Japan–will be Asian, and there will be more middle class consumers in Asia than there will be in America and Europe combined. Although still lagging North America, Asia will by then also have overtaken Europe in terms of regional defense spending, while six or seven of the top ten largest militaries in the world will be in Asia. The assumption is that China and India will be the new great powers in the Asia-Pacific, alongside established powers—the United States and Japan. The second tier is likely to consist of states such as Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines and perhaps Iran. The large number of cheap and amply available labor in the region, particularly in China and India, provide an economical advantage of workforce over other countries. But the greatest challenge in Asia is the political problems that threaten not just the economies, but the general stability of the region and world. The nuclear neighbors—Pakistan and India, constantly pose a threat to each other, causing their governments to heavily invest in military spending, so also is the case with Korean rivals, uncertainties in Middle East have tendency to disturb peace and harmony.
The rapid economic growth of Asia has influenced the world economy affecting international division of labor, trade patterns, capital flows, income distribution and economic situations. Asia’s economic growth over the past twenty-five years is very impressive with its revival and phenomenal growth performance that is catching attention worldwide. The Asian GDP growth rate projected by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) due to high investment levels and restrained inflation is higher than global average annual GDP growth of 4.7 per cent for 2010-2025. But, there are pointers of the structural imbalances in the global economy like negative levels of domestic savings of the United States, the fiscal deficit of Japan, the rapidly aging population of Europe, the overheated and unsustainable growth levels of China’s economy, and the increasing instability in the global energy supply (World Bank, 2004), all these will have an impact on the Asian region and it may reduce the economic growth rates to an extent. But this current pattern of robust economic growth and the increasing interdependence of the economies of the region, both with each other and with the rest of the world will increase economic integration and cooperation.
The Economic Communities like of ASEAN+8, SAARC, Arab League, etc. have already in process to establish the free trade area in Asia with the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation with each other and possible business partners to commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) on issues of cooperation on trade, transport, communication, monetary and financial matters in the future. The pattern of robust economic growth in Asia is no longer limited to Southeast and East Asia, but the major economies of South Asia have experienced rapid GDP growth over the past few years. Yet not all countries in the Asian region are benefiting equally from robust economic growth. It shows variation significantly from country to country and some countries lagging far behind. Thus, it is a challenge to move together because while some countries are having economic growth others are lagging behind like Tibet, Bhutan, and Nepal etc. Asian growth and progress must ensure that all the nation collectively move towards development. Yes this means leaving aside neighborhood enmity and joining towards greater cause.
The rapid growth and the expansion of trade in China and India have transformed the contemporary international political economy, creating both challenges and opportunities for other countries. It is projected that the two new giants are on an ascending trajectory, while the dominance of Europe and the United States recedes, while other developing and transition countries strive to gain or maintain a foothold in the global economy. European and American strategies to respond to rapid advances in the manufacturing and service sectors in China and India have already rekindled calls for protection, increased tensions among major powers, and posed a challenge to the beleaguered World Trade Organization (WTO). Rapid economic expansion in the new Asian giants also presents a major challenge for developing countries. Basic manufacturing that employs low-cost labor tends to be the way in which developing nations break into the world trading system for industrial exports. Such an approach is being undermined by competition from China and, to a lesser extent, from India. Almost a decade ago, Asia was engulfed in a major economic and financial crisis but now the tables are completely turned, as even the IMF desperately seeks to restore its legitimacy with a radically recharged Asia, who once was dissatisfied with Asian performance. But now they hope to involve in business in the spirit of cooperation and in a sense of urgency.
It is expected that by 2020, the Asia and the Pacific region could account for one-third of world trade. The region's economies are becoming more closely intertwined with each other and the rest of the world, enhancing and harnessing each country's comparative advantage. But growth in trade needs to be further accelerated to support the rebalancing of Asia's economies towards more domestic and regional demand. This will require substantial investments in regional road and railway networks, improvements in the software aspect of cross–border agreements, and stronger institutional capacities. Thus the challenge is to promote intra-regional trade through regional cooperation and integration. This is coming into effect but problems of terrorism, boundary disputes, misunderstanding of policies etc., are making it unfruitful. A lot of dialogue and CBMs (Confidence Building Measures) are taken but, it is challenging to accept other leaving aside all suspect and ghetto mentality. There are times when diplomatic relations totally breaks down simply because there is mistrust or misdeed from one party and it is followed up by another. When diplomatic dialogue and relations fail it takes time to restart again; therefore all countries have a responsibility and challenge to keep stable political referendum of people to lead nations in right direction, as constant political upheaval does no good to business and trade.
World economies strongly affects international politics and when the world economies of future lies basically in Asian countries, we need to give stable governments, because world over countries are trying to strengthen their ties of business interest and positions. China, Japan, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, etc. are well accepted economic powers, due to their share of market, demographic situation and the consumption patterns. The western and developed nations have a commercial interest to attain as they recognize the Asian nations. The influence of world order seems possible with the increase of permanent Security Council members’ seats, or united nation reforms. Even the counter approval of G-4, G-8 etc. have given a different outlook to the international relations and politics, where Asian nations are seen as a formidable player in coming decade as new pictures of alliance emerge with economic profits attached.
What is very clear is that if growth goals are pursued well, at least China, Japan, India and Indonesia will have a greater role internationally in world affairs, as most powerful and influential nations by 2020. China and India can dominate the world due to their largest market and potentials. This is inspiring and encouraging as Mr. Rodrigo de Rato, former MD of IMF, already recognized the rising weight of the under-represented Asian economies and has called for action on IMF shareholdings to new emerging market countries in the light of global economy. Though, almost a decade ago, Asia was engulfed in a major economic and financial crisis but now the tables are completely turned, that even the IMF desperately seeks to restore its legitimacy with a radically recharged Asia, and now they hope to involve in business in the spirit of cooperation and in a sense of urgency. But the challenge is how Asian nations can respond to the international call when at home they have variety of problems and disputes with neighbors, which often water-downs their future. Thus, Asian nations must strengthen their own domestic issues and respond to international calls and roles to be done. It also demands a better image of Asian countries, where international community is easily accessible. It is a challenge of leaders and also of people to be spread a better image of their nation’s world wide.
URBAN DEVELOPMENT
The population of Asia continues to increase keeping the Asia’s share of world population high. This brings the experience of most rapid and dramatic growth in urbanization as rural-urban migration continues when people avail better opportunities in cities, though their basic needs, facilities and services are not met, and they suffer from malnutrition, mostly due to lack of purchasing power and high food prices. Urban poverty and the related issues of urban food security are therefore of prime concern to local authorities. The loss of agricultural land is a direct consequence of urbanization. Cities tend to be located in agriculturally productive regions. Hence, urban sprawl leads to gradual encroachment on semi-urban farmland. At the same time, the growth of cities makes demands on the remaining agricultural land in more distant rural areas. This demand may be difficult to fill due to poor productivity, transportation and storage problems and the fact that farming is becoming a less economically viable occupation in many parts of the world.
Rapid urbanization, rising urban poverty, and associated food insecurity, and the loss of agriculturally productive land are therefore of particular concern in Asian cities. Asia being the world’s most populated region is the home of more than half of humanity. By 2015, it is estimated that 16 of the world’s 26 cities with populations of 10 million or more inhabitants will be in Asia. East, Southeast and South Asia are already the homes of some of the world’s largest urban agglomerations. The Asian urban population is growing at a rapid rate. The number of urbanites in China increases by 15 million annually whereas India contributes approximately half this figure (FAO, 2000b). It is clear that feeding the world’s growing urban population, particularly in the South, is a matter of utmost urgency. There are no simple solutions. Policy and implementation measures to deal with feeding city dwellers have to touch on concerns ranging from agricultural productivity through post-harvest technologies, marketing and distribution to food safety and the adequacy of consumer incomes. There are many challenges and opportunities to work together to feed the world’s cities efficiently and equitably. The poverty is on increase and so is the gap widening between the poor and the rich. The economic development has brought about a new middle class but a good number of people are becoming poorer day by day, especially the marginalized aboriginals, suppressed groups and communities who cannot afford to compete with educated and technocrats. The challenge lies here for us to avail them sustainable development at par with others by giving them equal opportunities to move up in life.
ENERGY
Energy is the most serious and inherent item needed to invest and bring about development, thus we depend a lot for our progress and work on energy. Thus when today we use a much great portion of fossil energy to meet our demand, being well aware of the fact that it would not last very long before we end up the resources, as the rate of consumption we have is too high. Therefore we do need a cleaner, cheap and soft non-renewable energy needs to search on, to reduce the carbon footing as well as working more the better facilities. Already the Asian market is ready to invest much on nuclear energy while looking at the option of green energy and clean energy possibilities. The less we use energy from the fossil and earth the better it is to conserve the earth and its inhabitant otherwise it will be over for us. The high density population adds to the woe to our energy needs and demands with growth and development the usage of energy is demanded more, but production remains the same while consumption is going higher. We need to control because there is no other means for us for future of our next generation, who would be left with earth’s resources if we avail ourselves with everything we can to meet the energy demands. Our dependence must decrease on nonrenewable energy resources, while it is high time to adopt and use renewable energy sources. The national or regional cooperation towards viable energy development, research and foundation must be carried out at larger level to bring energy security for our growing population in urban inhabitation. It is also environmental friendly to harness the resources freely available and to save earth from any possible future threat.
ENVIRONMENT
The economic growth of Asia has been spectacular that has lifted millions of people out of poverty and towards higher living standards, but along with it we also have contributed towards the climate change as our share of CO2 emissions are very high and if we continue to go on, our contribution to global carbon emissions could rise to 43% by 2030. We need growth but on low-carbon growth path, as much of the world's new energy and urban infrastructure over the next few decades will be built in Asia. Therefore, the outcome of Asia's efforts to limit GHG emissions could make or break global efforts to combat climate change. We thus need to reduce the use fossil fuels as dominant source of energy, by opting energy-efficiency and alternative low-carbon options to reduce GHG emissions and to address energy security concerns. Especially in cities we need the low-carbon alternatives and also transport alternatives, energy efficient buildings, industrial processes, and other initiatives like better land use planning to reduce travel demand, Innovative measures to encourage forest conservation and other land use practices that retain CO2-such as "avoided deforestation approaches"-are needed. Today climate change is affecting agriculture in the region due to decline in crop yield, moisture loss, and extreme weather. Countries like India, Bangladesh, and Nepal etc., where temperatures already tend to be close to crop tolerance levels are likely to suffer the most. Fresh resources for agricultural research and infrastructure are needed to combat these problems through better land use, new crop strains, and other innovations. It also possess a threat as we have coastal mega-cities, home to some of the world's largest slums, who are vulnerable to flooding and damage from unpredictable weather patterns. Urban development planning needs to take into account both the mitigation and adaptation sides of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had noted that the greatest single impact of climate change would be on human migration, with possibly millions of people displaced due to changes in weather, temperature, precipitation pattern and sea level. The predictable rise of sea level is a great concern for Asia- Maldives, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, china and others are sure to be affected severely due to environmental crisis. We cannot take it for granted to respond when we are affected, but, we must get ready now itself especially sea casts and low level areas have to be careful. Many mega cities of South Asia are on a direct threat where millions of people are sure to affected one day, knowing all these our action plan must be to meet and respond to global program and adopt national plans to reduce the menace concretely. The governments have a duty to encourage the civilians to look into these issues seriously. Today at this juncture we cannot wait for displacements to happen before tackling this issue but we must begin to adjust policies, institutions and financial mechanisms that will allow us to get ahead of the curve.
CONCLUSION
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